How To Read Tolland County Market Data in SmartMLS

Do you ever open SmartMLS, see a wall of charts, and wonder what actually matters for your decision in Tolland County? You are not alone. If you are thinking about buying or selling, a few core indicators can tell you where the market is headed and how to position your next move. This guide shows you which SmartMLS charts to open, what each metric means, and a simple monthly routine to stay ahead. Let’s dive in.

Why SmartMLS stats matter in Tolland County

Tolland County is made up of smaller towns with different price points and housing types. County averages can hide important differences by town, property type, or price band. When you use SmartMLS filters to focus on your micro-market, you get a clearer read on competition, pricing power, and timing.

The core metrics to track

New listings

New listings are the number of properties added in a period. Rising new listings signal more choices for buyers and more competition for sellers. Compare the last month to the prior month and the same month last year to factor in seasonality.

Active listings

Active listings show how many homes are on the market at a snapshot in time. This is your baseline supply number. You will use it to calculate months of supply.

Pending and under contract

Pendings provide a near-term demand signal. If pendings increase, closed sales often follow in 30 to 60 days. Remember that not all pendings close, so treat this as direction, not a guarantee.

Closed sales

Closed sales measure completed transactions for the period. Use them to gauge demand and to compute months of supply.

Days on Market and Cumulative DOM

Days on Market tracks how long it takes to go under contract. Cumulative DOM adds up exposure across relists, which can be more accurate for a property that was withdrawn and returned. Shorter DOM points to a faster market.

Months of supply and absorption rate

Months of supply equals active listings divided by average monthly closed sales. It is a primary balance indicator.

• Under 4 months typically favors sellers.
• Around 4 to 6 months is more balanced.
• Over 6 months often favors buyers.

Absorption rate is the flip side: closed sales divided by active listings. Higher absorption points to stronger demand.

Median vs mean price

Median price reduces the impact of outliers and is usually more reliable for local snapshots. Use rolling 3-month or 12-month medians to smooth small sample swings.

Sale-to-list price ratio

This shows the percentage of list price sellers receive. Higher percentages suggest stronger seller leverage. Track the last 30 to 90 days for current negotiation trends.

Price reductions

An increase in price reductions over the last 30 to 90 days can signal rising pricing pressure. Pair this with DOM trends before you set a list price or write an offer.

The SmartMLS charts to open first

Open SmartMLS SmartStats and start with these charts for your town, property type, and price band:

1. Months of Supply or Inventory trend by town and price band. This is your market balance snapshot and trend line.
2. New Listings vs Closed Sales for the last 3 months. Check if supply is entering faster than demand is absorbing.
3. Median Sales Price trend on a rolling 3 or 12 months. Look for direction rather than a single-month swing.
4. Sale-to-List Price Ratio for the last 3 months. Set real negotiation expectations.
5. Days on Market trend and the DOM distribution. Estimate time-to-contract.
6. Price Reductions frequency over the last 30 to 90 days. Gauge pricing pressure and staging urgency.
7. Pending vs Closed. If pendings are rising while closings lag, expect closings to pick up next.

A quick monthly workflow to stay on top

One-time setup

• Create saved searches for Tolland County as a whole and for the towns you care about, such as Tolland, Vernon, and Coventry.
• Segment by property type: single-family, condo, and multi-family.
• Add price bands that match your budget or target list price, like under 300k, 300 to 500k, 500 to 750k, and over 750k.
• Configure SmartStats for monthly and rolling 12-month views, and save your export template for quick downloads.

10 to 30 minutes each month

1. Open SmartStats for your saved search and note active listings, new listings, pending, closed, median price, DOM, and months of supply.
2. Run the priority charts above for your exact price band and property type.
3. Compare this month to last month and the same month last year to account for seasonality.
4. Check the pending pipeline. Rising pendings often point to more closings in 30 to 60 days.
5. Review price reductions over the last 30 to 60 days. Frequent reductions suggest softening conditions.
6. Export a CSV and add a row to your simple tracking sheet with date, active, new, closed, months of supply, median price, DOM, and sale-to-list percent.
7. Summarize in 3 to 4 bullets: supply trend, demand trend, price trend, and a recommended posture like slightly favor seller, balanced, or slightly favor buyer.

How to read common patterns

• Falling inventory with steady or rising closed sales points to a tightening market. Sellers can price more confidently. Buyers should be ready to move quickly.
• Rising new listings with falling closed sales and rising DOM suggests softening conditions. Expect more negotiation.
• Stable inventory with higher sale-to-list and shorter DOM can mean hot pockets by price band. Segment your view to find them.
• Pendings up with delayed closings can reflect seasonality or financing timing. Do not assume a one-to-one conversion.

Avoid common pitfalls with local data

• Seasonality is strong in Connecticut. Compare to the same month last year, not just last month.
• Small samples can swing medians. Use rolling 3 to 12 months when the number of sales is low.
• Relists can mask exposure. Use Cumulative DOM where available.
• Reporting lag is real. Some listings are entered or closed after the period cutoff, and off-MLS activity may not appear.

Simple formulas you can use

• Months of Supply = Active Listings ÷ Average Monthly Closed Sales. Example: 120 active divided by 20 closed per month equals 6 months of supply, which often favors buyers.
• Absorption Rate = Closed Sales ÷ Active Listings. As a percent: Closed divided by Active, times 100. Six months of supply is roughly 16.7 percent absorption per month.
• Sale-to-List Ratio = Median Sold Price ÷ Median List Price, times 100. Use recent closed sales and the list price that generated those sales.

Apply it before you list or bid

Use these checks before you set price or write an offer:

• Is months of supply in your price band under 4, near 4 to 6, or over 6? That frames leverage.
• Are new listings increasing faster than closed sales? That means growing competition.
• Are DOM rising, or are most homes still going under contract quickly? Adjust timing and expectations.
• Is the recent sale-to-list percent below your market’s typical 98 to 99 percent range? If yes, price conservatively.
• Are price reductions common in the last 30 to 60 days? Consider tighter pricing and staging.

If you want help, I can segment SmartMLS data for your exact town, price band, and property type, then pair it with on-the-ground advice about pricing, staging, and negotiation. Book a quick consult and I will set up saved searches and a simple monthly snapshot tailored to your goals. Connect with Tiziana Tremblay to get started.

FAQs

How often should I check SmartMLS for Tolland County trends?

• For most plans, a monthly check is enough, and if you are actively buying or selling, add weekly updates or real-time alerts from saved searches.

What months-of-supply number signals a seller’s market?

• As a rule of thumb, under 4 months of supply generally favors sellers, 4 to 6 is balanced, and over 6 often favors buyers.

How do pending sales affect next month’s closings?

• Rising pendings usually point to more closings in 30 to 60 days, but not all pendings close, so treat it as a directional indicator.

What if my town shows only a few monthly sales?

• Use rolling 3 or 12-month medians and review unit counts alongside price trends to avoid overreacting to small sample swings.

How can I tell how fast my home might sell?

• Check the Days on Market trend and DOM distribution for your town, property type, and price band to set a realistic time-to-contract.

Do price reductions mean I should list lower?

• If reductions are frequent in the last 30 to 60 days and DOM is rising, it often makes sense to price more tightly and improve presentation with staging.